Had this crazy idea after watching favorites cover spread after spread for two weeks straight. What if I just bet against the grain for once? Instead of always taking the safe picks, what would happen if I spent a week betting nothing but underdogs?
Set aside $350 for the experiment—money I could afford to lose without crying about it. The rules were simple: only bet on teams getting points, only take underdogs on the moneyline, and track everything obsessively.
Seven days later, I learned some uncomfortable truths about contrarian betting, variance, and why most people stick with favorites.
Actually, some of my best underdog spots came from MMA. N1Hype events are perfect for this since their cards feature rising local talent against established veterans. These matchups often create value when the books haven’t caught up to how good some of these Oceania prospects really are.
Day 1: False Confidence
Started Monday night with Lakers at +165 against the Celtics. Lakers were missing their best player, Celtics were at home on a winning streak. Classic underdog spot.
Lakers won outright, 112-108. Turned my $25 bet into $66.25 profit.
Felt like a genius. “This is easy,” I told myself. “Just fade the public every time and collect free money.”
Yeah, that confidence lasted exactly one day.
Day 2-3: Reality Check
Tuesday was brutal. Took three MLB underdogs—Rangers at +140, Marlins at +155, and Tigers at +180. All three teams got absolutely demolished. Lost $75 in one day.
Wednesday tried to get clever with some soccer underdogs. Sheffield United at +280 seemed like incredible value against Manchester United.
Sheffield United lost 4-0. Wasn’t even competitive.
Running total after three days: down $43.75. The underdog strategy was looking less brilliant.
Day 4: The Breakthrough
Thursday changed everything. Found a tennis match where the favorite was dealing with a minor injury that wasn’t reflected in the odds. Took the underdog at +220 for $20.
She won in straight sets. Suddenly, I was back to being up $55 for the week.
But I realized that this was not about “underdog strategy” but about finding actual value where the odds were wrong. The fact that she was an underdog was secondary.
Days 5-7: The Grind
Friday through Sunday tested my patience. Went 2-7 across various sports, including some truly awful beats.
Worst one: College basketball underdog up 8 points with two minutes left, then fouled three straight three-point attempts and lost by 1. Lost a +240 bet that should’ve been a winner.
Best one: NHL underdog in overtime at +190. Pure luck, but I’ll take it.
Sometimes when betting gets frustrating, I take breaks with simple games like red hot tamales just to reset my mind before getting back to serious wagering.
The Final Numbers
After seven days of exclusive underdog betting:
Total bets: 23
Winners: 8
Losers: 15
Win rate: 34.8%
Starting bankroll: $350
Ending bankroll: $298
Net loss: $52
Average odds of my winners: +167
Average bet size: $22
What I Learned
Underdogs lose for a reason. Sounds obvious, but it’s easy to forget when you’re looking at those juicy +200 odds. Most favorites are favorites because they’re legitimately better teams in good spots.
Variance is a killer. Even when your strategy is theoretically profitable, short-term results can be brutal. I needed way more than a week to know if this approach actually worked.
Value matters more than underdog status. My best bets weren’t good because they were underdogs—they were good because the odds were wrong. The successful tennis bet happened because I had information the market didn’t.
Bankroll requirements are huge. Betting underdogs exclusively means lots of losing bets punctuated by occasional big wins. You need serious money to survive the inevitable cold streaks.
The Psychology Was Harder Than Expected
Betting underdogs messes with your head differently than betting favorites. When a favorite loses, it feels like bad luck. When an underdog loses, you start questioning whether you’re just throwing money away.
By day six, I was second-guessing every bet. “Is this team actually live, or am I just being contrarian for the sake of it?”
The mental game was exhausting. Constantly betting against conventional wisdom takes more emotional energy than I anticipated.
Would I Do It Again?
Not as a blanket strategy, no. However, the experiment taught me to look for spots where underdogs might be undervalued instead of automatically dismissing them.
Now, I mix in underdog bets when I genuinely believe the odds are off, rather than following some arbitrary “always bet underdogs” system.
The Real Takeaway
Contrarian betting is not about blindly fading the public. It’s about finding spots where the market has overreacted to recent results, injuries, or narratives.
Sometimes, that means betting underdogs. Sometimes, it means betting favorites that everyone’s fading for emotional reasons.
The key is having actual reasons beyond “everyone else is betting the other way.” Because sometimes everyone else is right.
